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Market in Review · July 2026

Mid-Year Update: Iran, Rates and the Markets

Riaan Bosch, CFA · Portfolio Manager, ICON Fund Managers

Most of us are tired of hearing about the conflict in Iran and its impact on markets, but it is worth sharing an update from our side on where things stand.

The conflict continues to weigh on markets, with oil supply risks and inflation pressures keeping volatility elevated. Despite ongoing military action, negotiations remain at a stalemate. I do believe both parties want the conflict to end, but there is no easy off-ramp for either side. Navigation through the Strait remains the key sticking point.

Central banks have responded, with ten major banks across developed and emerging markets raising interest rates in the second quarter. Financial markets typically do not welcome higher rates. Locally, the Monetary Policy Committee surprised the market by holding rates steady, preferring to assess the second-round effects of higher oil prices before moving again.

A more resilient global economy than the headlines suggest

On a more constructive note, the global economy has shown genuine resilience. The IMF still expects around 3% global growth for the year, and while the World Bank and OECD have adjusted their forecasts downward, the revisions are modest — between 2.5% and 2.9%. Given that roughly 20% of the world's oil supply has been disrupted for close to five months, that is a surprisingly small adjustment.

Oil shortages were quickly balanced by reserve drawdowns from China and the US, along with the use of pipelines in the Middle East to bypass the Strait. Supply normalised quickly when the MOU was signed, and the market expects the same should the parties come to an agreement after the most recent flare-up.

Market returns year-to-date

Returns have been volatile, as one would expect. Global equities initially sold off, followed by a strong US tech rally, before cooling recently on renewed concerns about capital expenditure in the sector. Locally, bonds and the rand recovered strongly from the initial shock. Local equities have lagged, held back by weaker commodity prices and the global rotation out of software companies — which weighed on Naspers and Prosus in particular.

Where we stand almost seven months into the year:

Not the exceptional returns of 2025, but nothing to be concerned about. Importantly, our portfolios remain ahead of their objectives over the targeted time horizons. Bouts of flat or even negative performance are not uncommon and are very much part of the process. Markets do not move up in a straight line, and short-term volatility is part of generating the long-term growth that a bank account cannot offer.

It is also worth noting that the Income Portfolio, from which monthly payments are drawn, is up 4% for the year and has been largely unaffected by the conflict.

Looking forward

US interest rate decisions will, in my view, determine the market outcome for the remainder of the year. As luck would have it, the next Fed meeting takes place later this